The ‘Tyranny of Numbers’ and Raila’s waning National Appeal

 

The year 2007 was an electoral disaster, nobody knows who won! The Electoral Commission went as far as claiming that both sides rigged the election. However, what was not in doubt is that Raila Odinga had assembled a massive national voting bloc that ran through the Rift Valley, Western, Coast, Nyanza, Nairobi and Northeastern.  There was a ‘handshake’ with President Mwai Kibaki and Raila has continued with this tradition in what now appears to be part of presidential handover notes.

Some years back we had been made to believe that Kibera slums in Nairobi had a population of more than one million people until the national census put that figure at around 170, 000. Following the 2007 fiasco, we have also unquestionably accepted that Raila is an enigma with numbers. Fast-forward to 2013, Kibaki probably realized that he could not guarantee his deputy Kalonzo Musyoka votes from his backyard and that could have informed his decision not to endorse him. Uhuru Kenyatta had his mind on the presidency and in a ‘hard tackle’ snatched William Ruto from Raila who ended up with Kalonzo.

It was not long before Political Analyst Mutahi Ngunyi was all over the television screens loaded with figures in what he termed as “The Tyranny of Numbers” boldly declaring that Raila had no path to the presidency. Raila’s camp dismissed it as tribal propaganda, but his supporters were uneasy holding on to the hope that some in the Rift Valley would not go along with Ruto. It was so bad that even deadly accidents at the time would be looked at in terms of lost votes. Uhuru won and Raila was on the streets.

Unlike his predecessor, Uhuru felt that a few votes from the Mount Kenya region would be enough to get Raila over the line in the 2022 general elections. The ‘enigma’ finally had the ‘system’ as his brother Oburu Odinga reminded us. Sabina Chege even made claims in a political rally that they would rig the elections in favor of Raila prompting a summon by the Electoral Commission. If you know how to rig elections, you cannot fear running for re-election like she did. Ruto carried the day, and I am left wondering if he truly rigged the election, what is stopping his impeached deputy Rigathi Gachagua from spilling the beans?

Ruto’s camp is now talking about rigging the next election, which to me is a sign of panic – may be rigging is not as easy as we think. The numbers do not seem to add up. Raila has lost his appeal in the Kamba region, Northeastern, Kisii, Coast with perhaps the exception of Mombasa and Western Kenya cannot be considered fully in his arms. The Gen- Z have also proved that he does not have monopoly over protests and their rise could complicate tribal arithmetic in the next election. It is no longer business as usual.  I would not go as far as Gachagua in calling Raila ‘irrelevant’ in Kenyan politics, but we cannot hide our heads in the sand like we did when Mutahi Ngunyi came out with those famous figures.