Modern Day Dichotomous Diplomacy: You are either with us or against us

President Nelson Mandela famously said “one of the mistakes which some political analysts make is to think their enemies should be our enemies”. This is how diplomacy worked for the most part of the Cold War era. You could fly between Washington and Moscow cutting deals under the pretense of ‘non-alignment’ which went well for the emerging states as the two super powers battled for influence. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, America was still interested in building soft power but the economic rise of China has tested this to the point of near abandonment by the Trump administration which is now turning inwards.

It is no longer about being cool. Some have called it ‘transactional’ diplomacy but international politics has always been about national interests. Unlike the Soviet Union, China’s economic growth carries a threat that the West never had to worry about post Second World War. Worse still, the Chinese have not shied from flexing their muscles. At the start of Trump’s trade war, China warned that “it will hit back at countries that make deals with the United States that hurt Beijing's interests.” Where does this leave African states?

Kenya was recently designated a Non-NATO United States ally by the Biden administration something that comes with enhanced military cooperation.  The designation allows Nairobi to buy military technologies that would be a tall order for other countries to get from Washington, eligibility for loans of materials and equipment for research and placement of US-owned War Reserve stockpiles in their territory among other benefits. However, Kenya’s dalliance with China which has been on the rise since President Mwai Kibaki’s “Look East” diplomacy has rattled Trump’s Washington. This could also be due to lack of diplomatic tact by President William Ruto to deal with the times as evidenced by his rhetoric in a visit to China where he repeated Chinese lines of “New World Order”. The meeting between officials of Ruto’s UDA Party and China’s Ambassador to Kenya Guo Haiyan was also a point of concern for the Americans.

US Republican Senator and Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jim Risch has already called for a review of ties with Kenya. Democratic Senator Chris Coons who prides himself in “building mutually beneficial partnerships with countries in sub-Saharan Africa” seemed to be in concurrence. Kenya cannot walk away from the two nations, not even one of them but in this dichotomous view of diplomacy, it can no longer be business as usual in how foreign policy is conducted.

Liberal values have become secondary to the economy and this is what will probably define global diplomacy in the next decade apart from the return of inter-state wars. Diplomacy will therefore start with how well your economy is doing and then it will be upon the two rivals to decided how they want to transact with you. We may have gone past President Bush’s “You are either with us, or with the terrorists” declaration but President Trump’s trade war promises a delicate realignment that if not tactically dealt with, will have its causalities. Are we ready for it?