We were the idiots: Why “anyone can beat Ruto” is not a political strategy

In the 2020 United States presidential elections, Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden. His supporters later stormed Washington in a desperate attempt to stop the certification of the results by Congress. Trump left power as a political outcast even within his own Republican party. The elite believed that he will never mount a comeback, overzealous prosecutors both at state and federal level went after him, he was kicked off social media and negative coverage piled up on mainstream media. The Democrats wanted Trump on the presidential ballot because they were convinced he could not win against anyone they presented. Some top Trump rivals within the Republican party amplified that message including Nikki Haley and even the non- committal former vice president in the first “MAGA” administration, Mike Pence.

After the Gen-Z protests that brought down the 2024 Finance Bill, the elite in Nairobi have come to a similar conclusion that anyone can beat President William Ruto in the next election. They are not decided on who that person is but I foresee trouble. In as much as the protests were claimed to be tribe-less and leaderless, the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua looks to have succeeded in gaining sympathy in his backyard and is on a mission to build another tribal coalition. This is a non-starter for those who are tired of “shareholder” politics but it is also an area that Ruto would easily navigate – perhaps he also wants it. If he keeps Raila Odinga, he will be competitive in Nyanza, Western, Coast and even Nairobi. Any move to open up the Western Kenya Corridor with major infrastructural projects like road, rail and energy will significantly increase his fortunes. North Eastern traditionally votes for the incumbent.

Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah is a good man, I have voted for him in the last two elections but winning a presidential election requires more than just being a good man. I am not yet convinced that he has that political ground work that can bring down an incumbent in a national election. Politics in Kenya is played in funerals, the church and rallies – he is not doing any of that. He has an exploratory committee but I wonder what they are doing – internal polling or town halls? Omtatah’s strength is in defending the constitution and he can make a perfect case there. Those who did not bother about Raila’s constitutional pitch in the last election may be thinking twice following recent abductions and obvious challenges by the current regime to stay within the law. Beyond that, people are worried about their pockets, he needs a message with solutions. Ruto has been in politics for over 30 years, you cannot beat him by hanging around Nairobi or on X alone.

In elections, people vote for someone they know and they may have varying views on what is good or bad. Thanks to Elon Musk’s takeover of twitter, Trump did not need the mainstream media but he would sometimes do three rallies in a day and media interviews on his way to the next rally. The electorate knew his good and bad side but they did not know much about his rival especially what she intended to do while in office. If Omtatah ends up running and Gachagua’s yet to be unveiled coalition presents a candidate, Ruto will be easily reelected. Having followed Trump’s politics for a decade now, I should be forgiven for thinking that “anyone can beat Ruto” is not a political strategy. The Democrats realized it too late that the options they had were actually not good enough. Van Jones, a CNN pundit and former advisor to President Barack Obama made the following confession after Trump’s 2024 emphatic victory;

“This time last week we thought we were the smartest people in the world (Democrats)……it turned out we were the idiots”