Beyond the Slogan: Ruto and the Art of Trumpism

In 2012, Republicans lost their second election to former President Barack Obama the same year that two United States government facilities in Benghazi, Libya came under attack by an Islamic militant group resulting into the death of among others the American Ambassador. Hillary Clinton was the Secretary of State and a likely heir to Obama’s throne, Republicans went for her head. As conspiracy theorists on the far right branded Hillary a witch who belonged to a satanic cult and a child-sex ring, the Republican dominated Congress went on with endless investigations into her over the Benghazi attack and eventually her handling of confidential information. Amidst all this, the lapse of judgement by Obama’s Attorney General Loretta Lynch in meeting President Bill Clinton coupled by former FBI Director James Comey’s famous letter to Congress badly damaged Hillary’s presidential ambitions.

On the Republican side, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was a leading contender for the nomination until businessman Donald Trump came into the picture in 2015 with his “America First” agenda – the elite in Washington from the two main parties were caught off-guard. Trump attacked the Bush family over foreign wars, Jeb could not defend his brother on the debate stage, his campaign collapsed and with it the Bush dynasty. The elite in Washington were softening on immigrants, Trump told those who had fears that he would ‘build a wall’. The elite focused on Russia as the enemy, Trump told those who had been left behind by globalization that China which to him was responsible for diminishing manufacturing jobs was their actual enemy. The elite talked about climate change, Trump told coal miners that the Paris climate agreement had taken their livelihood. Bring the evangelicals into the mix and the rest is history. Referring to Trump as populist and racist with zero morals did not help, Washington had to be taught a lesson. The day of the election was declared ‘the day of independence’ by the brash billionaire.

President-elect William Ruto’s ‘Kenya Kwanza’ campaign slogan can be loosely translated as ‘Kenya First’.  Having identified early on that both the current president Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga were likely obstacles to his presidential ambitions, he quickly branded them as the ‘dynasty’ whose decades hold on power was responsible for Kenya’s economic problems – the time for freedom had come and he was the one to deliver it. The elite pushed on with constitutional reforms, Ruto talked about the ‘economy not positions’. The elite blamed the high cost of living on Corvid-19 and the Russian war, Ruto blamed it on the dynasty and its associated ‘state capture’. The elite marketed Ruto as corrupt, Ruto’s strategists reminded them that was a tired message – they never listened. The elite celebrated infrastructure, Ruto talked about fertilizers and ‘hustlers’. The elite spoke of Raila’s long struggle for democracy, Ruto dismissed it as an obsession with history. To his distractors, Raila is a witch and a violent man who was cursed by his father. His constant attacks on Ruto’s church donations further fueled such conspiracies hence in the same way the Bush and Clinton dynasties in Trump’s America were humbled, the Kenyatta, Moi and Odinga dynasties had their fate sealed. No so long ago, Trump ensured that Liz Cheney who voted to impeach him lost the Republican nomination to defend her Congressional seat. She is the daughter of Dick Cheney, a former Vice President under the George Bush administration. It is therefore a no brainer that Ruth Odinga and Oburu Odinga may not survive the next election.

In Washington, the defeated ‘deep state’ quickly regrouped to make it almost impossible for Trump to govern prior to exacting revenge with the election of Joe Biden in 2020. By refusing to directly acknowledge Ruto’s victory, both Raila and Uhuru may be thinking along those lines but unlike President Trump, Ruto is more disciplined and politically lethal. He will bite if he has to. Whatever actions the two protagonists adopt, half of the population will be cheering either side. Will our democracy survive?